Yes, things do move quickly. When I wrote this article ~5 months ago, CS collapsing did not seem likely. Now it is more likely, given that we have a crisis in the U.S. banking system due to SVB and idiots there not understanding how to hedge duration risk (see the latest article) and the fact that fears stemming from this have now spread to many other banks.

All that said, I still think it is highly unlikely that they will let CS go bankrupt. Someone else will acquire it or buy its assets. And they were already in the process of spinning off their IB division to form a new elite firm with Michael Klein, so I don’t think the investment bankers there will be affected much.

Yeah, so it’s not surprising that CS is spinning out the IB division. With the rest of the bank, I can’t really say what will happen because I haven’t followed it closely since this article (just too busy with other projects, and there’s so much in the news each day that it’s impossible to keep up). I still do not think CS will “fail,” but more divestitures/spin-offs or asset deals are possible.

Keep the good work
Cheers from Lisbon Portugal

Did you read/see the parts above about the Liquidity Coverage Ratio? It has its problems, but it’s the best/most standardized measure of a bank’s liquidity. And no large bank is going to have an LCR of 1000% or anything much higher than CS. And the requirement is only 100%.

Thanks. I don’t think there is really much to say about the various crises. “Governments/leaders are stupid and do not understand how money, energy, or the economy work, and they repeatedly do silly things to virtue signal that ultimately hurt everyone, including themselves.” That’s it!